For years, short-term, reactive measures have shifted pressures within the asylum system, creating new backlogs and leaving many claims unresolved for extended periods. This has led to inefficiencies, wasted public funds, and harm to both asylum seekers’ life chances and the government’s ability to meet its obligations to them and UK citizens, says the NAO. 

Through a data visualisation, and for the first time, the asylum system has been mapped out – from initial intake through to Home Office case processing, tribunal appeals, and local authority services to final outcome such as protection or removal – to show where the constraints lie and help government move from short-term fixes to a sustainable, whole-system approach.

The visualisation also shows how people claiming asylum in the UK move through the asylum system, the flow and quality of data from government departments, the costs, and how different organisations interact. It includes analysis of the progress through the system for a sample of 5,000 people who made an initial asylum claim in January 2023.

The NAO found that 35% of people in the sample had so far been granted protection while approximately 9% were removed from the UK after their applications were unsuccessful. But the claims of 56% of the people in the sample remain unresolved. Of these, 25% are awaiting an appeal decision and 3% involve further submissions. The remaining open claims are not being progressed, and the individuals involved have not been removed from the UK.

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There are encouraging examples of officials tackling root causes of failure and collaborating, but these are not systemic. In the accompanying report – An analysis of the asylum system – the NAO has identified four critical requirements – whole-system approach, addressing fundamental barriers, timely & robust shared data and a resilient approach to capacity and workforce – for a fair and efficient system that delivers value for taxpayers.

Immigration and the asylum system has been surging to the forefront of public debate, becoming one of the most hot-button issues in UK politics. Housing has been a key lever during the debate, with certain actors pushing scarcity of housing as a reason for an immigration crackdown.

The NAO has several recommendations for the government to help move towards a sustainable, whole-system approach; these include:

• By the end of 2026, present to Parliament a strategic plan for implementing the proposed new asylum model, publish annual progress assessments, and establish a lasting governance framework with shared decision-making and accountability.
• Create and publish a broad and balanced set of system indicators that reflect outcomes, quality, and efficiency for people seeking asylum, taxpayers, and citizens.
• Develop a long-term data blueprint to address poor data quality, lack of a single reliable record, and identify technical and behavioural changes needed to improve system efficiency.
• Build joined-up policy design across departments and ensure all interventions have an evidence base, cost-benefit analysis, and evaluation plan, published unless there is a strong reason not to.

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Gareth Davies, head of the NAO, said:

“Our analysis shows that the efforts of successive governments to improve the efficiency of the asylum system have often been short-term and narrowly focused, reacting to backlogs and rising costs.

“Successfully implementing the new asylum model recently announced by the Home Secretary will require effective action on the bottlenecks in the current system using better quality data and streamlined decision-making.”