The University of Manchester has carried out research into the effect of future climate change on social housing in the UK, research that highlighted the importance of investing in summer cooling requirements, with implications for grid capacity, occupant wellbeing, and energy affordability.
The report used a two-bedroom offsite manufactured home in Northwest England as a case study, applying dynamic building performance modeling to assess energy use. Weather files were used to simulate the predicted climate environment in 2030, 2050, and 2080 climate scenarios, showing a clear shift from heating-led demand toward increasing summer cooling requirements.
The reports findings’ give an insight into the long-term changes facing the UK as global warming continues to rise, changes that will be much less disruptive with advanced preparation and adjustments. The report is all the more topical today, as support for right wing parties that often harbor a begrudging distaste for environmental policies such as net-zero seems to be growing.
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The University of Manchester also carried out research into the climate resilience of social housing in December 2025, conducting interviews with 23 housing and construction specialists in order to understand how social housing can cope with changing temperatures. Research found widespread concern amongst professionals that the UK’s long-standing priority of keeping homes warm during winter means that the current social housing stock will become particularly vulnerable to overheating, a phenomenon that is already understood to disproportionately affect lower-income households.
Energy demand shifts
The report has considerable impact on future visions of energy demand, and sheds light on the significant shift that could be on the horizon should climate change continue at the current rates we see today. As winters continue to become milder, when modelled with Passivhaus specifications with an indoor heat pump, heating demand will fall to just 28.75% of the current requirements by 2080.
Steadily increasing temperatures and recurring summer heatwaves counteract this reduction in heating requirements with an opposite direction of travel for cooling demand. Following the report’s predictions, by 2050 the cooling demand in UK social housing is expected to climb by 138.69%.
Dr Claire Brown, of The University of Manchester, said of the research, “The implications of climate change for the residential energy system are far reaching. These emerging stresses challenge the viability of a ‘business-as-usual’ approach to housing provision and highlight the need for adaptive, forward-looking design and policy interventions to prevent future harm to residents of social housing in the UK and beyond.”
The report highlights the cyclical nature of the climate crisis. The UK is on a mission to reduce its carbon output in a bid to do it’s part to reduce damage to the environment, but the wheels are already in motion. Spiking cooling requirements will in turn require energy, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy if the correct cooling methods are not rolled out and adopted at scale.
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2026’s current temperature scenario is a real-life example of the high stakes of ill-prepared housing when combined with climate temperatures. More than 2,700 people are thought to have died from heat-related causes during the May and June heatwaves in England and Wales, with 42% thought to of died due to extra heat caused by human-induced warming. Young and older residents are particularly vulnerable to ill-regulated temperatures, although it’s important to note people of any age or fitness level can also succumb to extreme temperatures.
Dr. Clair Barnes, Research Associate in Extreme Weather and Climate Change, Imperial College London said: “Every time we have a heatwave, our news is filled with reporters at swimming pools, images of people eating ice cream and sunbathers on beaches. We all love the sun, but people need to be aware that we are now seeing dangerous climate-change fuelled heat that is claiming lives, disrupting schools and hospitals and shutting down transport and infrastructure.
“It’s time we woke up to the fact that we now live in a country with dangerously hot summers. To protect people during future extremes, we must urgently adapt to the reality of the climate we now have, and double down on global efforts to reach net zero emissions to stop this from getting worse.”
The University of Manchester’s research calls for the housing and construction sector to make use of weather files similar to those used in the report’s methodology to understand the projected climate changes and ensure new homes are built with the future in mind. The report also emphasises the need for passive cooling measures which will place no stress on the electricity grid, such as building homes to Passivhaus standards.
The full study can be found here: https://thinkhouse.org.uk/site/assets/files/3408/uom0626.pdf
